The market may kill Trump’s chances of winning

To me, the market has yet to price in the possibility of an actual Trump Presidency. When and if it does the process that this sets in motion could do more to damage his chances than anything Clinton could have done to defeat him.

Tonight’s debate could be the pivotal and historic event that set’s the following into motion:

1. Market prices in a Trump win (-15-20% drop in US equities and the world market contagion therein).

2. US electorate turns off the game, notices the financial apocalypse and it’s real world effect on their lives and (here’s the stretch) comes to the conclusion that the uncertainty that would come with a Trump win may in fact cause more of this.

3. Clinton wins with subsequent stellar rally to new all time highs.

Things could get weird here..

And given that not one big bank head or fortune 100 CEO is supporting Trump i wouldn’t put it past the banks to help this process along (and profit handsomely in the process).

Technical reminder:

This EURUSD chart says that something very bad may be about to happen to the US Dollar.

eurusddailyy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedintumblr

Possibility of Trump winning will destroy USD

As the entire world laughs in disbelief at the fact that the US may actually elect Donald Trump the markets are yet to figure out that an untested, emotional, ego-maniac, reality show star that’s allegedly indebted to authoritarian dictators who are unfriendly to the US  may not be the best thing for the US Dollar.

We can all admit that Obama’s weakness and lack of any real foreign policy created a vacuum that merely allowed opportunistic thugs such as Putin fill the void. Now we have an increasingly dangerous geopolitical situation. Unless the world is too busy posting selfies to Instagram to notice the creeping acceptance worldwide of dictatorial regimes and their invasions/occupations a real war may be required to clean up the mess.

Sadly, a real war with Russia in the next few years would actually not be the worst scenario if you figure the alternative would be to allow Putin to continue gaining strength, seizing lands and paying off Western European politicians to gain favor within their foreign policies. In this scenario a war would still be inevitable but the West would unfortunately be fighting a much stronger opponent having given Putin the time to build a better position. A Trump presidency assures this worst case scenario and markets are about to figure this out.

The closer the US gets to actually electing this guy the more the markets will move out of what will be increasingly uncertain USD assets. Today’s increasingly bullish European PMI’s is another side of this..but honestly for me it’s just a bonus as the larger logic for the trade is laid out here.

Long EURUSD. Technically a higher floor developing on the daily. Monthly confirming as well and showing 1.38 or so in price sometime over the next year.

 

EURUSD

eur-daily

 

 

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedintumblr

High Yield Credit signalling bad things to come

If this HY chart is correct markets could be about to face a sell-off in corporate debt. Even moderate contagion could be quite an event given that markets have shrugged off everything that’s happening.

I don’t see a way that the CB’s won’t be riding in to “save” us very shortly. Fed first to announce a charity QE to ease markets?

Commodities, commodity currencies such as AUD and Gold.. Like ive been saying all year.. No where else to be in my opinion.

High Yield Credit ETF right at steep resistance

^D4C0F44739EDA5391B4C7296782DF8B244D6CB7755E30B4684^pimgpsh_fullsize_distr

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedintumblr

2016 Trade of the Year – Australian Dollar

The longer i am in this business the more i realize it’s better to pull 2-3 big trades per year and fade the rest of the noise out there. Wait the really good set ups when everything lines up for a something huge. I think that’s what we have just been handed by the Australian dollar.

Australian housing is exploding and rates having been recently brought down to 1.75% and it’s doubtful that there will be further easing. Bubble talk has been overly prevalent across all AUS media outlets.

The US side of this is a basic “buy on the news, sell on the fact” run-up into the June Fed rate hike, probably the most preannounced hike in history and the USD overvaluation shows it. The USD in my opinion is about to tank in a big way with commodities, gold and the currencies that have GDP’s comprised heavily of these things will be the prime beneficiaries.

Australian Dollar.

Here’s the technical case. This same pattern i am seeing across many commodities such as soybeans, orange juice etc. A long term own trend with a recent stepping up within that downtrend to find old resistance levels as new support levels. Moves in which old resistance becomes support are normally some of the most ferocious up-moves.

AUD Weekly

audweekly

I began building a long AUD position last week out into August but the longevity of this move i suspect will be years not months. I’m expecting gold to do very well long term as well as USD floats back down to earth over the next few years.

And here’s more of the technical USD story.

EUR Daily – Ridiculous bullish

eurweekly

Swissy

chfdaily

Times like these.. We dont get them often but when we do..gotta really hit it.

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedintumblr

Markets at major inflection point

It’s been a long time coming but getting confirmation across multiple vehicles that everything might be about to change.

Equities down (but mitigated by weaker USD), Anti-USD trade could be a big winner including gold.

Here’s what i am seeing and why i am positioning the way i am.

 

US Dollar Index Futures

slusd1

Australian Dollar

slaud1

 

S&P Futures (long term weekly time frame)

sles2

 

 

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedintumblr

Bear Market

The Fed giveth, the Fed taketh away..

Last month i posted this showing the market was ripe for a correction.

Now, that’s exactly what is well underway as the Fed is trying it’s best to tank the market. And with nothing but air below until roughly 1790 support we may just see QE4 before any rate hike..

Here’s the ultra long term Emini monthly chart I’ve occasionally posted previously as it has developed. Now showing yet further confirmed downtrend.. Once again around 1790 is bottom of this channel..

 

Daily Emini S&P 500 Futures

ES-M-Doom

Daily Emini S&P 500 Futures

Alas..1790 here as well..

ES-Doom

 

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedintumblr

Another EUR trade

Safe to say this blog is very bearish USD for the the foreseeable future and has been for the past 6 months or so.To me these little vertical runs in DX futures are counter trend moves to be sold. I’m bullish anything anti-USD here especially gold.

Two months ago i posted this public trade on bullish EURUSD move.

Here’s another in the series.

Buying EURUSD calls based upon this developing higher floor as i think the move will break the prior resistance.

eur-D

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
Facebooktwittergoogle_plusredditpinterestlinkedintumblr