EURGBP at pivotal point

An example of the methodology employed in my trading.

Buying some EURGBP here but will take profit early as there’s such downside momentum. exit will be based on the Euro weekly chart rather than EURGBP.

More here.

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The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan

Trades and Recent results

Much of my web interaction tends to be focused on the ongoing invasion by the Putin regime into Ukraine.. but my bread and butter is financial markets. I trade oil, indices, individual equities, futures, bonds, forex and pretty much anything that moves and is liquid.

Since June I’ve been posting my actual trades into an interface provided by Coghlan Capital. These are real trades and anyone can view them. There’s no BS, just real positions. Since June it is up over 100%. There are not many that get returns like this but this is all i do with my time. I live and breathe financial markets.

My positions tend to be individually 10% of my AUM and duration from 1 day to 3 months. for example right now i only have two positions on which represents about 20% with cash being around 80%.

Visual representation of a hypothetical $100,000 account since inception 6.5 months ago. There is no compounding of profits here so if you were to factor that in the returns are closer to 152%.

All current and closed trades are listed here and updated as they come in.

^74490562C6019DCA6B935DDF8992FCF9FD9127545B935DA5CC^pimgpsh_thumbnail_win_distr

 

I dont provide advice of any kind. These are my trades and results.

 

 

 

 

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan

Interview with George Soros on the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Vice News somehow got this exclusive interview with Soros.

Love him or hate him, Soros understands the Russian/Ukrainian situation better than most. Not only that but admitting that the EU has devolved into such a disaster that Putin’s supporters in the EU are created out of hatred for the system under which they live even though the Putin regime is a much worse alternative.

“Europe needs to wake up.”

“Europe blissfully unaware it is under attack”

 

soros

 

 

 

 

 

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan

Two oil markets, two paths?

Thesis here is that the huge move in Brent is overdone and that once WTI gets in the $39 range it could be a good time to buy Brent.

The world has two oil markets with two sets of not entirely correlated variables affecting price. WTI’s huge move is substantiated because of the overwhelming supply added to the market as a result of the shale madness in the US. Brent for the most part has just come along for the ride.

The US has experienced a significant increase in oil production with the unconventional shale fields using technology developed in the US. This expansion in production over the last 5 years has no equal in the rest of the world.

crude_oil_production

While the US has developed new shale fields like the Bakken in North Dakota and Eagle Ford in Texas, this hasn’t been replicated anywhere else. In fact, the US, which does not allow exports of it oil, is the biggest contributor to oil production growth in global terms over the last 5 years.

There are two sets of factors in play in setting global oil prices:

  • The US gone from the world’s largest importer of oil, to the world’s largest producer. This spike in domestic supply has farther to go before the impacts of low current prices curtail production. Since the US doesn’t allow crude oil exports, and now declining PMI’s showing growth rate slowing it could take the US a while to work off this supply domestically.
  • Fundamentally Brent however has been impacted primarily due to a lack of current US demand caused by oversupply from the former exporters to the US and world economic slowing.. As US shale fields slow down due to hyperbolic decline curves in production, global Brent prices should rebound quicker than their US counterpart. another issue is that the availability of credit in energy will only get tighter causing more slowing in CapEx, new production coming online.

There is a lot risk right now in the regions that are producing oil and relying on that income to stabilize their domestic budgets. Currently the market is pricing in oversupply, and forgetting about the risk premium that still exists in global hotspots. The global markets are a lot more dangerous, with Russia experiencing global sanctions affecting its oil markets directly.

In a conversation today with a contact who works in the Libyan government he commented that they are only producing 200k barrels/day and that if the progress on the situation isnt made within the next 2 months there is a strong possibility that the country gets split into 3.

The chart below from the US Energy Agency, show the production profile of Libya since 1980. If Libya does turn into an Iraq, with up to three regions, its unknown when Libya would return to producing oil at levels of its former self.

libya_total_oil_production

There are also comments that the current King of Saudi Arabia is already dead or in a terminal coma, if so who will be the next King, and what are his thoughts about the current oil strategy for the Kingdom?

Russia?

There is real world pressure for a solution to be found that stabilizes prices and allows for a slow return to former price decks. You only have to see the President of Venezuela and OPEC exporter flying to China to ask for a government to government loan to know that real pain is hitting the oil producers market.

cl_f_weekly

Technicals:

WTI should get a bounce at $39. If that support fails there isnt anything substantial until the single digits. Doubtful we see single digits imo..

Trade: I will start buying Brent when WTI hits $39 and look for an expansion in the spread between the two.

 

 

 

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan

Buying opportunity for Treasuries ?

30YR Treasuries looking good here. Granted with NFP coming tomorrow anything can happen. Doubt the Bond bull will die so easily.

Technically this level has been resistance in the past and finding it as support would be natural. On the larger time frames it’s just silly bullish…still..on and on.

Added some here.

 

Here’s 240Min 30YR Treasuries front-month futures

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And here is within context of the monthly.. Looks like we eventually get to the 160’s and the small gap on the previous visit to support says we probably break the resistance this time, some time over the next year.

YT558472-091

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan

Down 100 points on ES Since New Years Eve

A week ago i posted this, laying out why i thought the market was topping. That turned out to be the exact peak. We’re now down 100 points over 4 sessions.

What i didnt mention but had noticed was the little “shot across the bow” we got from the BIS about 10 days ago which really didnt get the attention that it deserved. When  the BIS says the markets are a bit hot for it’s liking, that is a message to all the CB’s that have been loading up on equities/ETF’s en masse over the past couple years. Currently the Swiss Central Bank has 16% of it’s assets allocated to world equities, Czech Central Bank 10%, Danish..many more but most are not publishing the numbers.  This is in my opinion is why we havent seen the VIX slams and final-30min ramps we’ve grown to know an love since the markets have joined the Centrally Planned Socialist Utopia that is the post 2009 market.

The fact is that with the markets sitting on ever increasing equity exposure they have become the counter-party to guys like us that lack the insider info that the CB’s have been acting upon. And what i’m getting at by this statement is that when the Central Bank of Central Banks wants to accumulate at lower prices it lets the other Central Banks know but keeping it strictly “legal” a parallel statement must be made around the same time via a public journal, website etc..

CB’s, being the counter party that they are want to buy equities cheap just like we do..

1879-1882 looks to be the target if it happens this week or next. I’d will be building longs somewhere in that area.

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The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan

S&P at resistance again- This time with declining PMI’s

GDP data, as my friend @antonkreil likes to say  “is an historical document” and really doesn’t matter other than the initial market reaction.  It’s the forward looking indicators such as PMI’s that matter and right now they are all signaling a slowing global economy. Today’s China Manufacturing PMI officially printed contraction for the first time in many years at 49.6. We are now in the sweet spot wherein the market being juiced by every Central Bank’s purchase programs for a solid year-end print has turned a blind eye to those pesky deteriorating fundamentals. In my opinion retail is finally in and the rug pull is imminent.

Not to mention the technicals which are screaming once again. ES futures weekly >

YT558472-083

Closing longs sometime today and beginning to build the shorts on the high multiple stuff but have a feeling we may need to wait until the 2nd week in January before the upward momentum fades right as some of the Fed’s programs end.  And that’s why i scale into things at these points rather than adding entire positions at once. I’ve only pushed the service once from this blog but being year end i’ll do it now as it’s up 74% since June inception which is probably kicking the hell out of most of these other services by “traders”.

CoghlanCapital tracks my trades live since June. All positions listed here. It’s a simple system on which i enter my positions as i exit or enter.

http://coghlancapital.com/omnitrades-current-positions

Have a great 2015!

 

 

 

 

 

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan