Seven charts telling us the selling is over..for now

Friday at the close i posted here that i was buying in the midst of the panic selling we were seeing.

Think back to the pre-Bullard correction of October 2014. We went from what i see as Blatant fed-juicing of the market with VIX selling near obvious resistance levels, last 30 minute equity futures ramps and all the other usual ZERO. No mysterious intervention of any kind, then the subsequent correction. All Intentional. Then once the number was hit it all came back first by first wheeling out Bullard to tell us everything is ok. Then the monster rally all the way to Jan 1st.

This time all the same… No Vol crushing, no mysterious ramps on no-volume.. We’re now at 10% correction and i smell some creepy fed types blessing us with their soothsaying presence come Monday..and it all starts again.

ASIA WILL CRASH MONDAY ON THE OPEN!!  No. As we speak PBOC is planning a intervention blitz for Monday’s trading session. Maybe a slight follow through of the Western selling on the Asian open then as US equities hold their ground buying comes in..  My opinion..

And here’s more of the technical case.

Emini S&P Futures



Nasdaq Futures at Support



10 Year Notes at Resistance



Russell2000 Futures at Support



WTI Crude Oil



Dow Transports



And to totally Geek-Out, here’s Arms index

Chart from @bobbrinker twitter feed.



To summarize.. The air has been let out and guessing one more up-leg left in this bull market..




The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan

Crude oil..finally bought

And here’s part of the story.. The crude oil weekly chart.  But really what gave me the first heads up that things were changing can be found in the post i made here two weeks ago on the USD finally looking like it’s done with it’s bull run.

This began to confirm on the EUR daily chart which enabled me to get long EURUSD as well as some agricultural commodities such as corn. I’m currently silly long a number of vehicles against the USD.

Here’s WTI on the weekly:


And once again this blog was WAY ahead of 99% of highly (over) paid asset managers..


What does it mean for equities? Like i said on twitter a couple weeks ago. The last way to rally this market..or at least keep in flat in the face of slowing growth is a weakening USD. But i will not be buying back equities unless something big happens. Still believe there’s too much risk on the table with China and the coming collapse of pretro economies such as Saudi Arabia and the Mafia-Midget’s regime in Russia.

Putin does a false flag to deflect building domestic anger? Some Western countries sanction RU oil? Could be catalyst for higher oil finally..  But Putin will need to do something ridiculous soon..







The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan

Last time we were here (almost) we heard ..BULLARD!!!

See that tag of the support back in October of 2014?

That’s the infamous “Bullard Bottom”.

Not saying we will get it again this time as most other charts are saying a bit more downside..especially in the higher multiple stuff.. Not much though.

This time we have a gap at the top on last visit to good chance we break this support least for a quick flush at minimum. I’ve been short high multiple since last week..

Those subscribing to the service here saw the Russell shorts put on..

DOW Futures





The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan

Mental Side

Today ended my four month run of 31 consecutive winning trades. CoghlanCapital posts all my trades in real time as i do them and occasionally includes my ramblings when needed to contextualize trades/positions.

I’m posting today’s final post here..

16:11:44 JFarro: I am over-trading right now. The problem with a run like that (31 consecutive winners) is that it tends to go to my head resulting in mental relaxation and i take trades i normally wouldn’t. The two latest IWM trades i see as perfect examples of that. Being conscious of these mental changes that occur during good/bad runs is something i learned to monitor a few years back and has helped my trading enormously. In the end this is an educational service so the mental side of all this is something that should be included when appropriate. Positioned very well right now. Sitting in the worlds strongest currency (80%) and any opportunities the charts soon give me i have freedom to hit hard.
The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan

Follow up to post from 27th calling for Treasuries sell-off

Back on the 27th i said Treasuries were overdone and due for a pull-back.

Here’s what happened. As you can see we did get a sizable sell off.

Today we have GDP and a combined 120 companies reporting earnings in both Europe and US. If the chart holds and Treasuries do move up from here then we are about to get something the equity market will not take well..

Technicals lead fundamentals..

30 Year US Treasuries Futures








The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan