Russian Ruble – Big move i presented 2 weeks ago is happening

Back on May 1st i posted this http://signalinea.com/ruble-appears-ready-for-a-big-move/ making the case for an impending big move in the USD/RUB. Take a look at the chart in that post and compare to what we have today.

Here’s the updated and notated current chart bringing in the US element. Why such a correlation between Trump admin chaos and Ruble weakness… One has to think..

los-rubles-doomed

 

Friday June 9th Paul Coghlan will be hosting a live Seminar in Central London covering the technical aspects of trading trends, slopes and median lines. This event is the the first in-person seminar since 2012 and not to be missed.

If you will be in London try to catch it.

http://www.coghlancapital.com/2017_seminar

 

 

 

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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And there it goes.. Crude oil

Earlier today i posted this daily crude oil sitting at final support.

Then this.. Support cut through like butter.

Implications for economies that are already on the brink such as Venezuela and Russia could make themselves known any time now.. And it wont be pretty..

cl-lord-have-mercy

Tue, Jun 6, 2017 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM Paul Coghlan will be hosting a free public webinar covering this method of technical analysis. A recording will also be sent to all those registered.

Register Here

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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Crude through support on 240, now final support on daily

A few days ago i posted this 240 chart of WTI futures. We subsequently broke through support and now sitting at support on the daily which as you can see has a long standing up-trend. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a small bounce of $1.50 here, tagging the underside of the previous support as resistance (lower green line.

Good for a trade but probably minimal upside. Cheap, short dated options, holding 5-7 days probably not bad choice if one were inclined.

Crude Oil Daily

oil-240

Tue, Jun 6, 2017 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM Paul Coghlan will be hosting a free public webinar covering this method of technical analysis. A recording will also be sent to all those registered.

Register Here

 

 

 

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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Will Venezuela be the catalyst for higher crude prices?

Massive protests, violence and military in the streets not getting as much coverage as it deserves given it’s happening in the territory of the world’s 11th largest crude oil producer.

Crude has found a bottom where we thought it would.. Upside limited here imo as we have both lower ceiling and floor within context of the slope.

WTI Crude Oil Futures

crude-oil-240

Today Paul Coghlan will be giving a public webinar covering the charting methods i discuss here on this blog. He’s the best in the game so check it out.

Register here:

Free public webinar Tue, May 2, 2017 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM EDT

 

 

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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Ruble appears ready for a big move

The Russian currency is at critical point here technically while just things just happen to be heating up domestically for Putin.

Opposition figure Navalny starting to get a lot of press after Kremlin media blurred the face of his attacker this weekend sending the message that government will protect those that attack anyone opposing Putin in upcoming election (those that aren’t already dead, jailed exiled that is). Fresh from jail and court proceedings (again) Navalny last month rallied hundreds of thousands nationwide to anti-corruption protests and with larger versions planned in a couple weeks Putin will probably stand by his old methods and launch another invasion, false flag terror attack or whatever it takes to keep his domestic audience’s eye off the ball. A much weaker (up-move on the chart below) Ruble would surely be the result in these events.

The fact that before this latest visit to resistance we couldn’t make it to the previous floor increases the probability that this downtrend breaks. Breaking this resistance and subsequently finding support there could mean a large up-move in the Ruble.

USD/RUB

ruble-da

Tomorrow Paul Coghlan will be giving a public webinar covering the charting methods i discuss here on this blog. He’s the best in the game so check it out.

Register here:

Free public webinar Tue, May 2, 2017 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM EDT

 

 

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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How i am playing the Mexican Peso here

In my previous post from earlier today i pointed out a simple technical point on a text book bullish (bearish for peso) chart for the Mexican Peso.

Received an email asking how i would play it if convinced it were about to move…and i am.

The ISHARES MSCI Mexico Capped ETF (EWW) is probably the easiest and most liquid vehicle on which options can be had. In this case put options.

Here is the chart of that ETF which is confirming what i see on the Peso itself (inverse correlation).

EWW

eww

 

 

 

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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Critical juncture for the US Dollar

The years long USD up trend may soon be confirming that things are changing in global markets as the Fed is no longer the only major Central Bank in tightening mode.

Technically the probability of this coming support (DX chart below) failing is high as we now have a lowered ceiling given that DX was unable to reach it’s past resistance on the December 2016 spike. Breaking support with a subsequent retest as resistance would be bad news for Dollar bulls. Such an obvious confirmation such as this could get volume piling against USD fast and hard.

Below is one of the many 0dd-ball commodities i am seeing confirming inflationary clouds on the horizon possibly under the guise of USD weakness. Orange Juice futures..

Both charts being overall up-trends with one big difference. USD WEAKENING within the trend and OJ STRENGTHENING within the trend.

USD INDEX FUTURES

usd-vs-oj

ORANGE JUICE FUTURES

orange-juice-futures

 

 

 

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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Coghlan called all the equities moves of last week

Firstly, for context – Where we are in the scope of long term equities on the cusp of tightening cycle

Nasdaq long term futures

naz-daily

Pretty sure that no one called last week’s large moves in equities like Coghlan.

Today (Thursday March 30th 12pm EST) he is hosing a public webinar explaining his tools for seeing these moves.

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/7141891353955847171

 

Then this GBP move..

 

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/7141891353955847171

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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Crude oil to $20

If this chart is correct oil is headed to the $20 level sometime in the next year. The ramifications for credit market and geopolitical environment especially Russia would be huge.

Crude Oil Futures weekly

cl-weekly-doomed

Russia

For Putin Regime to hold power after losing -15% of it’s GDP some foreign military entanglements would most probably be the distraction of choice. Lots are jumping into Russian market ETF’s now to ride the current wave of Putin worship among those with short memories or too young to remember how the last time this all played out.

Here is what Putin did last time he needed a foreign conflict to consolidate public opinion:

 

 

 

 

2017 is shaping up to be anything but boring..

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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