USD..still doomed

Back on December 29th i posted that USDJPY was probably topping. HERE

Now, down almost 600 pips with real possibility of 100 some time in 2016. This USD story is all that matters to me for positioning in the year to come.

^5A79800001230D37929F8FAFB6B8A71F6688B1B7DB0B043D49^pimgpsh_fullsize_distr

 

 

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan

Tankage – Right on cue

On December 18th i showed how i saw the market playing from what i saw as the final topping process of the 2009-2015 bull market. Well..here’s what happened.

es-m-m

A small relief rally could be expected here but doubtful to me it has legs as the strong USD that’s caused the majority of the EM/Commodity soul crushing of the past year will not work itself off quickly enough.

To me now, it’s all about the Dollar. Will get into that later.. Technically it appears to be topping..which would entail the Fed is not ready to commit to total Armageddon by continuing with higher rates, no matter what they say.

Being short USDJPY (stronger Yen) and long EURUSD (stronger EUR) probably won’t be the worst places to be for 2016 if i had to guess.

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan

Sayonara Yen

The USD strength that has facilitated the commodity market blood bath and eventual US earnings pain in my opinion is coming to an end. Here’s the yen on an ultra long term time frame. Each bar representing a month in time.

yenM

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan

Bear market and probable path

This is how i see the new bear market playing out.

Downside being in the 1300-1400 range for S&P over the next few years..and in terms of USD that may be valued at a much lower rate than today’s USD.

ES-monthly-sl

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan

Ye Olde Topping Process..

Since there is absolutely no doubt in 100% of market participants’ minds that the market will scream higher into perpetuity regardless of deteriorating data (today’s Manufacturing PMI 48!!) and looming war with Russia, i wanted to take this opportunity to introduce an old friend.. Gravity.

ESMs

 

 

 

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan

Post from this morning – Another Fed induced credit crisis coming

This is a post i made this morning. Really sums up what i think is going on.

05:26:18 JFarro: To me the only question is best case, How long can Fed not raising rates keep this late cycle bull market going? Technically we have a few rejections from resistance in the long time frame charts and seems the obligatory Santa Rally combined with dovish speak could get the the December bar to tag resistance as well.Maybe one more tag for January then the fun begins. Every point the USD appreciates is farther into the abyss for emerging markets/commodity based economies. With these emerging markets’ debt denominated primarily in USD we just basically have another Fed induced credit crisis in the works.

ES Futures – Monthly

ES-M

 

 

 

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan

World crying deflation – But It’s over

While the world is crying deflation we have sugar, corn and other soft commodities all up +10%-15% from their lows of 2 months ago. A solid downtrend that lasted a number of years has recently broken and has since stair-stepped up into a familiar pattern. I wont post all of them but soybeans has just confirmed the same pattern as of yesterday (chart below)

The newish USD Index downtrend we first found 2 months ago was the first clue and now with equity markets tanking it’s just more confirm that the USD strength that has destabilized the world economy is on it’s way out – Fed cannot raise.

What’s going on in soybeans is what i am seeing across most soft commodities

Resistance becomes support, then a large move up with a subsequent return back to confirm the new support.

Corn and sugar both ahead of soybeans by about 3 weeks. I got long corn 2 weeks ago and soybeans yesterday.

Here’s soybeans just at the sweet-spot now. Old resistance should now become support.

SoyD

 

 

 

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan

Higher still..

I’m not planning to post here much in the future as i just really dont have time. My original reason for this blog was to have some public scrutiny on my own trading techniques so i could improve. Also the occasional political rant just to get it off my chest.

The blog has served it’s purpose for the most part. The annual returns in my own accounts are running about +1000% per year at this point. If i add any new levels to my trading and need this public forum to work out the bugs i will be back and posting as before.

I think a bear market has begun but we need to complete this counter-trend rally first..

This is how i feel the last-gasp of the 2009-2015 QE bull market will complete this last rally.

S&P

Median line in new uptrend as well as resistance becoming support on old downtrend

post2

Russell2000

Higher Floor

post3

DOW

Resistance has become support.

post4

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan