The longer i am in this business the more i realize it’s better to pull 2-3 big trades per year and fade the rest of the noise out there. Wait the really good set ups when everything lines up for a something huge. I think that’s what we have just been handed by the Australian dollar.
Australian housing is exploding and rates having been recently brought down to 1.75% and it’s doubtful that there will be further easing. Bubble talk has been overly prevalent across all AUS media outlets.
The US side of this is a basic “buy on the news, sell on the fact” run-up into the June Fed rate hike, probably the most preannounced hike in history and the USD overvaluation shows it. The USD in my opinion is about to tank in a big way with commodities, gold and the currencies that have GDP’s comprised heavily of these things will be the prime beneficiaries.
Here’s the technical case. This same pattern i am seeing across many commodities such as soybeans, orange juice etc. A long term own trend with a recent stepping up within that downtrend to find old resistance levels as new support levels. Moves in which old resistance becomes support are normally some of the most ferocious up-moves.
I began building a long AUD position last week out into August but the longevity of this move i suspect will be years not months. I’m expecting gold to do very well long term as well as USD floats back down to earth over the next few years.
And here’s more of the technical USD story.
EUR Daily – Ridiculous bullish
Times like these.. We dont get them often but when we do..gotta really hit it.
Safe to say this blog is very bearish USD for the the foreseeable future and has been for the past 6 months or so.To me these little vertical runs in DX futures are counter trend moves to be sold. I’m bullish anything anti-USD here especially gold.
Nine months ago i posted this. Was USD finally done? We had to wait a little longer but when the hounds of hell finally came for USD they did so with a vengeance. Here’s Dollar Index futures on the weekly time frame. The European “QE success story” will probably overshadow the US “QE hangover” story over the next few quarters as capital flows pour out of USD and into commodity currencies, EUR and anything anti-USD. But really..where does it lead?