Markets at major inflection point

It’s been a long time coming but getting confirmation across multiple vehicles that everything might be about to change.

Equities down (but mitigated by weaker USD), Anti-USD trade could be a big winner including gold.

Here’s what i am seeing and why i am positioning the way i am.

 

US Dollar Index Futures

slusd1

Australian Dollar

slaud1

 

S&P Futures (long term weekly time frame)

sles2

 

 

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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Bear Market

The Fed giveth, the Fed taketh away..

Last month i posted this showing the market was ripe for a correction.

Now, that’s exactly what is well underway as the Fed is trying it’s best to tank the market. And with nothing but air below until roughly 1790 support we may just see QE4 before any rate hike..

Here’s the ultra long term Emini monthly chart I’ve occasionally posted previously as it has developed. Now showing yet further confirmed downtrend.. Once again around 1790 is bottom of this channel..

 

Daily Emini S&P 500 Futures

ES-M-Doom

Daily Emini S&P 500 Futures

Alas..1790 here as well..

ES-Doom

 

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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Another EUR trade

Safe to say this blog is very bearish USD for the the foreseeable future and has been for the past 6 months or so.To me these little vertical runs in DX futures are counter trend moves to be sold. I’m bullish anything anti-USD here especially gold.

Two months ago i posted this public trade on bullish EURUSD move.

Here’s another in the series.

Buying EURUSD calls based upon this developing higher floor as i think the move will break the prior resistance.

eur-D

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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Truly bottomless Dollar Index

Nine months ago i posted this. Was USD finally done? We had to wait a little longer but when the hounds of hell finally came for USD they did so with a vengeance. Here’s Dollar Index futures on the weekly time frame.  The European “QE success story” will probably overshadow the US “QE hangover” story over the next few quarters as capital flows pour out of USD and into commodity currencies, EUR and anything anti-USD.  But really..where does it lead?

DX Futures Weekly – 88 coming?

DX-true

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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Equities – had to be patient

15 Days ago i posted that long term resistance coming for the equity market.

We did indeed fail at this resistance level leading to the last 48 hours carnage in world wide equities (Nikkei alone down -8%) but spent about 8 trading sessions riding along resistance area. Sometimes you have to be patient for these things.

USD may be a bit oversold here so if current correlations hold we may see a mitigation in equities selling.

Current version. Emini S&P Futures

ESDDDD

 

 

 

 

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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EURUSD 1.30

More and more over the past two years I’ve become reliant on the ultra long term charts for bias on most vehicles.

You saw this in my calling the top in USDJPY 4 months ago just before we saw it go from 123 down to it’s current 107. The monthly called that even though most shorter term charts were extreme bullish.

Here we have the EURUSD monthly chart.

Not much to say here..but ~1.30 and beyond sometime in next few months is a possibility..

The extreme USD strength that contributed to decimating the commodities complex and all the repercussions therein is probably over.

USD flows to emerging markets and EU countries like Czech Republic (solid PMI prints that arent getting much media attention yet) might offset even the most dovish EU Central Banking apparatchik machinations.

 

EUR/USD Monthly

 

 

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The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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