To me, the market has yet to price in the possibility of an actual Trump Presidency. When and if it does the process that this sets in motion could do more to damage his chances than anything Clinton could have done to defeat him.
Tonight’s debate could be the pivotal and historic event that set’s the following into motion:
1. Market prices in a Trump win (-15-20% drop in US equities and the world market contagion therein).
2. US electorate turns off the game, notices the financial apocalypse and it’s real world effect on their lives and (here’s the stretch) comes to the conclusion that the uncertainty that would come with a Trump win may in fact cause more of this.
3. Clinton wins with subsequent stellar rally to new all time highs.
Things could get weird here..
And given that not one big bank head or fortune 100 CEO is supporting Trump i wouldn’t put it past the banks to help this process along (and profit handsomely in the process).
This EURUSD chart says that something very bad may be about to happen to the US Dollar.
The best charting teacher I know: