jf991

All articles by jf991

 

And there it goes.. Crude oil

Earlier today i posted this daily crude oil sitting at final support. Then this.. Support cut through like butter. Implications for economies that are already on the brink such as Venezuela and Russia could make themselves known any time now.. And it wont be pretty.. Tue, Jun 6, 2017 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM Paul
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Crude through support on 240, now final support on daily

A few days ago i posted this 240 chart of WTI futures. We subsequently broke through support and now sitting at support on the daily which as you can see has a long standing up-trend. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a small bounce of $1.50 here, tagging the underside of the previous support as resistance
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Will Venezuela be the catalyst for higher crude prices?

Massive protests, violence and military in the streets not getting as much coverage as it deserves given it’s happening in the territory of the world’s 11th largest crude oil producer. Crude has found a bottom where we thought it would.. Upside limited here imo as we have both lower ceiling and floor within context of
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Ruble appears ready for a big move

The Russian currency is at critical point here technically while just things just happen to be heating up domestically for Putin. Opposition figure Navalny starting to get a lot of press after Kremlin media blurred the face of his attacker this weekend sending the message that government will protect those that attack anyone opposing Putin
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How i am playing the Mexican Peso here

In my previous post from earlier today i pointed out a simple technical point on a text book bullish (bearish for peso) chart for the Mexican Peso. Received an email asking how i would play it if convinced it were about to move…and i am. The ISHARES MSCI Mexico Capped ETF (EWW) is probably the
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Is Trump about to trash NAFTA?

If this Mexican Peso chart is correct something is about to happen there.. The best charting teacher I know:

 

Critical juncture for the US Dollar

The years long USD up trend may soon be confirming that things are changing in global markets as the Fed is no longer the only major Central Bank in tightening mode. Technically the probability of this coming support (DX chart below) failing is high as we now have a lowered ceiling given that DX was
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Coghlan called all the equities moves of last week

Firstly, for context – Where we are in the scope of long term equities on the cusp of tightening cycle Nasdaq long term futures Pretty sure that no one called last week’s large moves in equities like Coghlan. Today (Thursday March 30th 12pm EST) he is hosing a public webinar explaining his tools for seeing
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Crude oil to $20

If this chart is correct oil is headed to the $20 level sometime in the next year. The ramifications for credit market and geopolitical environment especially Russia would be huge. Crude Oil Futures weekly Russia For Putin Regime to hold power after losing -15% of it’s GDP some foreign military entanglements would most probably be
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Why oil sold off 8% in 4 days

Weekly crude oil going back quite some time.. And it’s a long way down.. The best charting teacher I know:

 

Technical side of yesterday’s gold sell off

Not much else needed here other than that the USD wasnt up much on this… I am looking for much higher gold prices. Gold (GC) Futures     The best charting teacher I know:

 

Possibility of Trump winning will destroy USD

As the entire world laughs in disbelief at the fact that the US may actually elect Donald Trump the markets are yet to figure out that an untested, emotional, ego-maniac, reality show star that’s allegedly indebted to authoritarian dictators who are unfriendly to the US  may not be the best thing for the US Dollar.
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High Yield Credit signalling bad things to come

If this HY chart is correct markets could be about to face a sell-off in corporate debt. Even moderate contagion could be quite an event given that markets have shrugged off everything that’s happening. I don’t see a way that the CB’s won’t be riding in to “save” us very shortly. Fed first to announce
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Coghlan Public Charting Webinar

To learn more about the trend analysis methods i implement in my own trading i would recommend checking out Paul’s monthly public webinar. Next Monday June 27th 12PM EST   Here’s registration link https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/6410649045080465667   USD Dollar / Czech Koruna   –  Obscure but just another now confirming the new long term USD downtrend. The best
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2016 Trade of the Year – Australian Dollar

The longer i am in this business the more i realize it’s better to pull 2-3 big trades per year and fade the rest of the noise out there. Wait the really good set ups when everything lines up for a something huge. I think that’s what we have just been handed by the Australian
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Markets at major inflection point

It’s been a long time coming but getting confirmation across multiple vehicles that everything might be about to change. Equities down (but mitigated by weaker USD), Anti-USD trade could be a big winner including gold. Here’s what i am seeing and why i am positioning the way i am.   US Dollar Index Futures Australian
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Gold – Times like these..gotta buy

The fundamental case has just been building day by day.. Even with rising rates i think we see nice bull market in gold over the next few years. No time today to go into it all..but i like.. The best charting teacher I know:

 

Bear Market

The Fed giveth, the Fed taketh away.. Last month i posted this showing the market was ripe for a correction. Now, that’s exactly what is well underway as the Fed is trying it’s best to tank the market. And with nothing but air below until roughly 1790 support we may just see QE4 before any
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Another EUR trade

Safe to say this blog is very bearish USD for the the foreseeable future and has been for the past 6 months or so.To me these little vertical runs in DX futures are counter trend moves to be sold. I’m bullish anything anti-USD here especially gold. Two months ago i posted this public trade on
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USD – Again – Doomed

The way i see it the move of the past week was a counter trend move. Resumption of the trend seems about right here.. The best charting teacher I know:

 

Emini Futures monthly – Downslope in control

Market…no beuno. Given the long term nature of this time frame, it could be curtains for equities for the foreseeable future.   The best charting teacher I know:

 

All the “Brexit” talk did it’s job. GBP at support

Non-stop Brexit talk on all Euro media outlets non stop for the past week. And here we have support. Let’s see if it holds. Also seeing the same on other EU currencies such as USDCZK. GBP 20 Min The best charting teacher I know:

 

Truly bottomless Dollar Index

Nine months ago i posted this. Was USD finally done? We had to wait a little longer but when the hounds of hell finally came for USD they did so with a vengeance. Here’s Dollar Index futures on the weekly time frame.  The European “QE success story” will probably overshadow the US “QE hangover” story
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Equities – had to be patient

15 Days ago i posted that long term resistance coming for the equity market. We did indeed fail at this resistance level leading to the last 48 hours carnage in world wide equities (Nikkei alone down -8%) but spent about 8 trading sessions riding along resistance area. Sometimes you have to be patient for these
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EURUSD 1.30

More and more over the past two years I’ve become reliant on the ultra long term charts for bias on most vehicles. You saw this in my calling the top in USDJPY 4 months ago just before we saw it go from 123 down to it’s current 107. The monthly called that even though most
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Weekend viewing – Multi Vehicle Analysis by Coghlan

                    The best charting teacher I know:

 

Almost there.. Market overheated

Just the technical picture of where we are on US equities.. Will build shorts around here. More USD strength,being that DX is at the bottom of the long standing downward channel on the weekly could be the catalyst as commods should get renewed pressure. My guess though is that the doves come out to talk
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Russell2000 – When support become resistance – sadness ensues

Yesterday while market participants were reveling in an orgy at the bullpen i cast doubt on intermediate term market direction by posting http://signalinea.com/end-of-q1-window-dressing-just-in-time-for-big-resistance/   I was adding shorts not on the blue chips, but the high multiple sector. Here’s why.. Here’s the Russell2000 weekly. If this old support does indeed become resistance it’s a long
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Coghlan’s daily Morning Analysis vids from last week nailed it – As usual

Paul’s March 28th vid just before alot of big moves, particularly in the USD.. Moves that looked a bit like >>>>>>           The best charting teacher I know:

 

End of Q1 window dressing just in time for big resistance

End of 1st quarter window dressing and subsequent Friday (tomorrow) follow-thru could be enough to tag this resistance on the Emini S&P. Trade setups don’t often come this obvious. But when they do.. Putting on shorts tomorrow. But probably high multiple sector though for added tankage.. But now that the ES/USD correlation seems to be
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USDJPY fulfillment

Back on February 9th i posted http://signalinea.com/usd-still-doomed/ showing that USDJPY had probably peaked and that it meant a good and probable case for USD weakness in general for the very long term. Since then a correction of around -10% has come off USDJPY.. But honestly a technical bounce here wouldnt surprise.       The
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Anatomy of a Trade – Closed

A few weeks ago i posted http://signalinea.com/anatomy-of-the-trade/ responding to requests i occasionally receive asking if i could walk through one of my trades from beginning to end. Today i took profit on that position with a +28% gain. But given the long term nature of my bias on EURUSD it was probably too early.  Zooming
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Whole world bullish crude oil now – But..

Crude oil weekly. WTI looking at what was solid support.. If this turns into resistance (which i believe it will) the carnage will be extreme given the one sided bullish bias right now.  This would put crude into the teens.         The best charting teacher I know:

 

Anatomy of the Trade

Ive gotten the question a few times over the past few years. For those that don’t watch my Omnitrades service at Coghlan, here is a trade as i do it. Fundamentally i want to be anti-USD for the foreseeable future. Nice dip on a shorter time frame chart to a raised floor (meaning probable higher
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USD..still doomed

Back on December 29th i posted that USDJPY was probably topping. HERE Now, down almost 600 pips with real possibility of 100 some time in 2016. This USD story is all that matters to me for positioning in the year to come.       The best charting teacher I know:

 

Tankage – Right on cue

On December 18th i showed how i saw the market playing from what i saw as the final topping process of the 2009-2015 bull market. Well..here’s what happened. A small relief rally could be expected here but doubtful to me it has legs as the strong USD that’s caused the majority of the EM/Commodity soul
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And then they said “Get Long Crude on Saudi/Iran tension..lol”

Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the crude oil.. When support becomes resistance.. The best charting teacher I know:

 

Sayonara Yen

The USD strength that has facilitated the commodity market blood bath and eventual US earnings pain in my opinion is coming to an end. Here’s the yen on an ultra long term time frame. Each bar representing a month in time.   The best charting teacher I know:

 

Bear market and probable path

This is how i see the new bear market playing out. Downside being in the 1300-1400 range for S&P over the next few years..and in terms of USD that may be valued at a much lower rate than today’s USD.   The best charting teacher I know:

 

Ye Olde Topping Process..

Since there is absolutely no doubt in 100% of market participants’ minds that the market will scream higher into perpetuity regardless of deteriorating data (today’s Manufacturing PMI 48!!) and looming war with Russia, i wanted to take this opportunity to introduce an old friend.. Gravity.         The best charting teacher I know:

 

Silver being sold during US session, Asia buying..until last night

Even Asia wising up to what’s inevitable? Chart by Sir Paul “The Dog Whisperer” Coghlan     The best charting teacher I know:

 

Post from this morning – Another Fed induced credit crisis coming

This is a post i made this morning. Really sums up what i think is going on. 05:26:18 JFarro: To me the only question is best case, How long can Fed not raising rates keep this late cycle bull market going? Technically we have a few rejections from resistance in the long time frame charts
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World crying deflation – But It’s over

While the world is crying deflation we have sugar, corn and other soft commodities all up +10%-15% from their lows of 2 months ago. A solid downtrend that lasted a number of years has recently broken and has since stair-stepped up into a familiar pattern. I wont post all of them but soybeans has just
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Higher still..

I’m not planning to post here much in the future as i just really dont have time. My original reason for this blog was to have some public scrutiny on my own trading techniques so i could improve. Also the occasional political rant just to get it off my chest. The blog has served it’s
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Post from this morning

Post from this morning on the CoghlanCapital service that follows my trades. I think it’s how things are going to play out. I could back it up with tons of charts and data across commodities, FX and indices but won’t have time right now. 03:36:40 JFarro: This Fed waiting game has brought average lot size
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Here we go again..bonds not ready to die

One of there most profitable charts of the year gives us another set up.. US treasuries Futures   The best charting teacher I know:

 

Seven charts telling us the selling is over..for now

Friday at the close i posted here that i was buying in the midst of the panic selling we were seeing. Think back to the pre-Bullard correction of October 2014. We went from what i see as Blatant fed-juicing of the market with VIX selling near obvious resistance levels, last 30 minute equity futures ramps
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World’s coming to end.. I’m buying here

Nasdaq.. Buying.. Also confirming on 10YR Notes and Oil.. The best charting teacher I know:

 

Crude oil..finally bought

And here’s part of the story.. The crude oil weekly chart.  But really what gave me the first heads up that things were changing can be found in the post i made here two weeks ago on the USD finally looking like it’s done with it’s bull run. This began to confirm on the EUR
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And then this.. USD

Last week i said that i was finally expecting a move down on the USD (USD dollar Index Futures) That’s what we got.. Closed USD shorts today.. Not only because of the level but that just finding it hard to believe that this USD run ends so easily.. DX Futures     The best charting
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