Critical juncture for the US Dollar

The years long USD up trend may soon be confirming that things are changing in global markets as the Fed is no longer the only major Central Bank in tightening mode.

Technically the probability of this coming support (DX chart below) failing is high as we now have a lowered ceiling given that DX was unable to reach it’s past resistance on the December 2016 spike. Breaking support with a subsequent retest as resistance would be bad news for Dollar bulls. Such an obvious confirmation such as this could get volume piling against USD fast and hard.

Below is one of the many 0dd-ball commodities i am seeing confirming inflationary clouds on the horizon possibly under the guise of USD weakness. Orange Juice futures..

Both charts being overall up-trends with one big difference. USD WEAKENING within the trend and OJ STRENGTHENING within the trend.

USD INDEX FUTURES

usd-vs-oj

ORANGE JUICE FUTURES

orange-juice-futures

 

 

 

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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Coghlan called all the equities moves of last week

Firstly, for context – Where we are in the scope of long term equities on the cusp of tightening cycle

Nasdaq long term futures

naz-daily

Pretty sure that no one called last week’s large moves in equities like Coghlan.

Today (Thursday March 30th 12pm EST) he is hosing a public webinar explaining his tools for seeing these moves.

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/7141891353955847171

 

Then this GBP move..

 

https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/7141891353955847171

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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Crude oil to $20

If this chart is correct oil is headed to the $20 level sometime in the next year. The ramifications for credit market and geopolitical environment especially Russia would be huge.

Crude Oil Futures weekly

cl-weekly-doomed

Russia

For Putin Regime to hold power after losing -15% of it’s GDP some foreign military entanglements would most probably be the distraction of choice. Lots are jumping into Russian market ETF’s now to ride the current wave of Putin worship among those with short memories or too young to remember how the last time this all played out.

Here is what Putin did last time he needed a foreign conflict to consolidate public opinion:

 

 

 

 

2017 is shaping up to be anything but boring..

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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Possibility of Trump winning will destroy USD

As the entire world laughs in disbelief at the fact that the US may actually elect Donald Trump the markets are yet to figure out that an untested, emotional, ego-maniac, reality show star that’s allegedly indebted to authoritarian dictators who are unfriendly to the US  may not be the best thing for the US Dollar.

We can all admit that Obama’s weakness and lack of any real foreign policy created a vacuum that merely allowed opportunistic thugs such as Putin fill the void. Now we have an increasingly dangerous geopolitical situation. Unless the world is too busy posting selfies to Instagram to notice the creeping acceptance worldwide of dictatorial regimes and their invasions/occupations a real war may be required to clean up the mess.

Sadly, a real war with Russia in the next few years would actually not be the worst scenario if you figure the alternative would be to allow Putin to continue gaining strength, seizing lands and paying off Western European politicians to gain favor within their foreign policies. In this scenario a war would still be inevitable but the West would unfortunately be fighting a much stronger opponent having given Putin the time to build a better position. A Trump presidency assures this worst case scenario and markets are about to figure this out.

The closer the US gets to actually electing this guy the more the markets will move out of what will be increasingly uncertain USD assets. Today’s increasingly bullish European PMI’s is another side of this..but honestly for me it’s just a bonus as the larger logic for the trade is laid out here.

Long EURUSD. Technically a higher floor developing on the daily. Monthly confirming as well and showing 1.38 or so in price sometime over the next year.

 

EURUSD

eur-daily

 

 

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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High Yield Credit signalling bad things to come

If this HY chart is correct markets could be about to face a sell-off in corporate debt. Even moderate contagion could be quite an event given that markets have shrugged off everything that’s happening.

I don’t see a way that the CB’s won’t be riding in to “save” us very shortly. Fed first to announce a charity QE to ease markets?

Commodities, commodity currencies such as AUD and Gold.. Like ive been saying all year.. No where else to be in my opinion.

High Yield Credit ETF right at steep resistance

^D4C0F44739EDA5391B4C7296782DF8B244D6CB7755E30B4684^pimgpsh_fullsize_distr

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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2016 Trade of the Year – Australian Dollar

The longer i am in this business the more i realize it’s better to pull 2-3 big trades per year and fade the rest of the noise out there. Wait the really good set ups when everything lines up for a something huge. I think that’s what we have just been handed by the Australian dollar.

Australian housing is exploding and rates having been recently brought down to 1.75% and it’s doubtful that there will be further easing. Bubble talk has been overly prevalent across all AUS media outlets.

The US side of this is a basic “buy on the news, sell on the fact” run-up into the June Fed rate hike, probably the most preannounced hike in history and the USD overvaluation shows it. The USD in my opinion is about to tank in a big way with commodities, gold and the currencies that have GDP’s comprised heavily of these things will be the prime beneficiaries.

Australian Dollar.

Here’s the technical case. This same pattern i am seeing across many commodities such as soybeans, orange juice etc. A long term own trend with a recent stepping up within that downtrend to find old resistance levels as new support levels. Moves in which old resistance becomes support are normally some of the most ferocious up-moves.

AUD Weekly

audweekly

I began building a long AUD position last week out into August but the longevity of this move i suspect will be years not months. I’m expecting gold to do very well long term as well as USD floats back down to earth over the next few years.

And here’s more of the technical USD story.

EUR Daily – Ridiculous bullish

eurweekly

Swissy

chfdaily

Times like these.. We dont get them often but when we do..gotta really hit it.

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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Markets at major inflection point

It’s been a long time coming but getting confirmation across multiple vehicles that everything might be about to change.

Equities down (but mitigated by weaker USD), Anti-USD trade could be a big winner including gold.

Here’s what i am seeing and why i am positioning the way i am.

 

US Dollar Index Futures

slusd1

Australian Dollar

slaud1

 

S&P Futures (long term weekly time frame)

sles2

 

 

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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