Oil has had quite the run. Here’s the weekly CL chart. Starting to build short position here. Things are happening in Turkey though so entering small.
Payback Time for the “Yanukovych Family”
by Anders Aslund | December 11th, 2013 | 03:00 pm
Ukraine is in the midst of a financial as well as a political crisis, one that is essentially caused by embezzlement from the Ukrainian state by its rulers to the tune of $8 billion to $10 billion a year. The European Union and others dealing with Ukraine should demand that the government be audited, the culprits forced to pay back, and those found guilty be ousted and prosecuted.
So far, the Euro Maidan or Euro Revolution has largely been about politics and foreign policy, but it must not be forgotten that this government has run the Ukrainian public finances into the ground through top-level corruption. The time has come to think creatively about how to sort out the rampant Ukrainian financial crisis.
Ukraine’s well-known problems of corruption lie behind Ukraine’s last-minute demand for payment in return for association with the European Union. A headline in Yevropeiskaya Pravda on December 7 said it all: “[First Deputy Prime Minister Serhiy] Arbuzov: Ukraine needs 10 billion [US dollars], but Europe Proposed only 610 million [euro].” This is of course better than President Viktor Yanukovych’s absurd demand of €160 billion from the European Union in grants until 2017, but Arbuzov’s insistence was logical if fantastic. His government needs such a large amount because of its financial mismanagement.
The Ukrainian government’s budget deficit of 6 percent of GDP or $11 billion is driven by what is commonly called the “Yanukovych family” siphoning big money from the state budget. Because everyone knows about this corruption, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Union have refused to aid the Ukrainian government.
Billions of dollars have disappeared from the Ukrainian government each year, equivalent to an amount sufficient to cover the $30 billion budget deficit run up during President Yanukovych’s term in office. Ukraine’s independent media has reported how the money has been embezzled and who has benefited, but the exact details are important, and I abstain from naming names. Among the devices of corruption identified by the media are the following:
1. Billions of dollars are extracted each year out of the State Tax Administration and the State Customs Committee. Some appears to be sheer embezzlement, some is in the form of bribes passed on to the top, and some comes from commissions demanded from value-added tax refunds for exporters. A reasonable assessment of this embezzlement would be $3 billion to $5 billion a year.
2. Competitive bidding of large infrastructure projects, notably connected with the Euro 2012 Soccer Cup, has ceased. The government overpays for these projects by paying twice as much as it should. Reasonably, half of the money should be returned by those who will be revealed to have benefited. This source should generate at least $2 billion a year.
3. The state oil and gas company Naftogaz buys 18 billion cubic meters of domestically produced natural gas each year at the ridiculously low price of $53 per 1000 cubic meters. The alleged purpose is to sell cheaply to consumers, which is done but only to a limited extent. There is a leakage of perhaps half this volume, permitting someone to make a fortune from reselling the gas to industrial customers for a price related to the Russian gas price of $410 per 1000 cubic meter. The potential for privileged arbitrage here is enormous: $350 per 1000 cubic meters times 9 billion cubic meters equals $3.15 billion. This is probably the main reason why Yanukovych so adamantly opposes increased gas prices.
These three sources of embezzlement and corruption alone have probably generated $8 billion to $10 billion a year to the “Yanukovych family” during the last three years. Rather than allowing Yanukovych to try to get the best bargain he can from the IMF, Europe, Russia, and China, with the aim of feeding these embezzlement schemes, the appropriate legal authorities need to audit the Ukrainian state finances in the three areas mentioned above, going back to Yanukovych’s election in February 2010. Given the pervasive corruption of government state agencies and mutual political distrust in Ukraine, it might be a good idea to invite independent European auditors to sort out the mess.
Once the beneficiaries of embezzlement have been established, they should be forced to pay back to the Ukrainian state. If this were done fast, the current problems with Ukraine’s state finances would disappear.
These and other methods of corruption probably explain why Yanukovych refused to go along with the new EU-designed law on prosecution in Ukraine. Any independent investigation or prosecution directed by the West could end up with Yanukovych and members of his government in court, with the possibility of prison. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin, on the other hand, embraces and endorses corrupt practices.
Ukraine harbors many other sources of corrupt revenues, such as privileged privatization and extortions at all levels, but given the critical state finances, there is merit in focusing on the direct extraction of cash from the government that can be returned.
Five natural conclusions flow from these observations. If carried out forcefully and effectively, they would help resolve Ukraine’s current financial and political crises:
1. The Ukrainian opposition, the European Union, and the IMF need to demand a full audit of these key features of the central Ukrainian government finances during the Yanukovych presidency. The only plausible audit would be international. International donors have a stake in restitution of theft by those in power.
2. Once investigated and understood, the European Union and the IMF should demand that these corrupt practices be outlawed, putting state finances on a sustainable basis.
3. All top officials responsible for gross larceny should be ousted from government.
4. The beneficiaries of larceny should be forced to pay back what they have extracted unlawfully from the Ukrainian government. In return for reasonable repayment, they should be permitted to buy their freedom from jail.
5. Inevitably, this process will take some time and it will have to be accompanied with major political changes. If this cleansing process is on a sufficiently secure basis, the European Union and the IMF will no doubt provide the necessary crisis financing. That is the very function of the IMF, and the European Union has often cofinanced sound IMF programs.
Anders Åslund is a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and author of How Ukraine Became a Market Economy and Democracy.
Posted in Global Financial CrisisThe best charting teacher I know:
A decent piece by the Ecomonomist:
THE bells of Mikhailovsky Cathedral in the ancient heart of Kiev began to ring in alarm just after 1am on December 11th. As in medieval times this was a sign that the city was under siege, and a call to citizens to come to its defence. Down a steep hill, columns of riot police, in black helmets and bearing metal shields, descended on Independence Square, popularly known as Maidan (square), from three directions. Maidan, the site of revolutionary protests over the past three weeks, seemed to be facing its most critical hour.
There was no panic, only resolve. Young people held hands, some cried. Inside the barricaded encampment, sombre-looking men put on helmets and padded coats for protection. Women were advised to leave the square. The winter air was electrified with tension.
On the illuminated stage, projected on a screen, protest leaders called for calm and defiance, priests read out prayers and Ruslana, a popular Ukrainian singer, led the national anthem: “Ukraine has not yet perished, nor her glory, nor her freedom.” Thousands of Maidan protesters struck up the chorus line: “Souls and bodies we’ll lay down, all for our freedom/And we’ll show that we, brothers, are of the Cossack nation!” The Ukrainian and European Union flags fluttered alongside each other.
On the other side of Khreshatik, the main street, the riot police charged forward to storm the barricades. Several people were injured in skirmishes. But the protesters on Maidan itself held their ground, displaying formidable discipline and giving the police no excuse for using violence. At about 4am, with the police floundering, the atmosphere changed. Expectation of an inevitable defeat gave way to a premonition of victory. (It later transpired the police did not have an order to disperse the crowd, only to push it aside.)
Standing in temperatures of minus 13°C, ready to be beaten up, the people on Maidan were defending something far greater than an association agreement with the EU, which was the initial cause. They were standing in the way of a police state, defending fundamental European values and defying the post-Soviet order imposed by Russia. Whatever advantage the riot police had in equipment, the protesters had moral superiority. They were on the right side of history, pushing against the authoritarian power of President Viktor Yanukovych.
“This was the birth of the nation,” says Petro Poroshenko, whose television channel provided blanket coverage of the stand-off. As dawn broke over Kiev, the police retreated. Their attempts to recapture two municipal buildings occupied by protesters were easily thwarted. While some defenders of Maidan fell asleep in their tents, new helpers handed out hot tea and sandwiches, repaired barricades and cleared streets of snow. But in spite of a sense of moral triumph, the morning provided little explanation for the timing of and motives for Mr Yanukovych’s actions.
On the face of it Mr Yanukovych’s move defied common sense. Only a few hours earlier, he was shown on television talking to three former presidents of Ukraine about finding a peaceful way out of the crisis; he held talks with Catherine Ashton, the EU’s foreign-policy boss, and Victoria Nuland, America’s assistant secretary of state, and spoke by phone to Joe Biden, its vice-president. Launching an assault on Maidan with both diplomats in town seemed a deliberate provocation.
The reaction was quick to follow. John Kerry, America’s secretary of state, expressed “disgust with the decision of Ukrainian authorities to meet the peaceful protest in Kiev’s Maidan with riot police, bulldozers and batons”. Sanctions could follow, Mr Yanukovych was told. On the other hand Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, must have been pleased. Mr Yanukovych’s actions revealed his adherence to Mr Putin’s school of governance. And Mr Yanukovych has good reasons to keep Mr Putin happy. Having ditched the pact with Europe (even though he assured Baroness Ashton, perhaps for tactical reasons, that he still intends to sign it), Mr Yanukovych is now reliant on Russia’s money to rescue Ukraine’s collapsing economy.
Mr Yanukovych and Mr Putin are supposed to meet next week in Moscow to sign several agreements which are thought to include cheaper gas for Ukraine and, rumour has it, to allow Mr Yanukovych’s family business into yet another opaque vehicle for importing gas. Mr Yanukovych is terrified of upsetting Mr Putin, who is likely to have made this deal dependent on Mr Yanukovych’s ability to clear protesters off the streets.
The botched crackdown dealt another blow to Mr Yanukovych’s dwindling legitimacy. His orders are being sabotaged. The oligarchs, who control most television channels, defy his orders. Considering Ukraine’s looming financial crisis, Mr Yanukovych’s position is not much stronger than that of the Communist coup-plotters in the Soviet Union in 1991, who lost legitimacy and power in three days by inciting violence which the country rejected.
What keeps Mr Yanukovych in power is the lack of a clear opposition leader. None of the three main options, including Vitaly Klitschko, a former heavyweight boxing champion, can really negotiate on the protesters’ behalf. For now the stand-off continues with no clear way out. Mr Yanukovych may play for time and bring out an army of paid supporters. But one thing is clear: the bells are tolling for him.The best charting teacher I know: