End of Q1 window dressing just in time for big resistance

End of 1st quarter window dressing and subsequent Friday (tomorrow) follow-thru could be enough to tag this resistance on the Emini S&P.

Trade setups don’t often come this obvious. But when they do..

Putting on shorts tomorrow. But probably high multiple sector though for added tankage..

But now that the ES/USD correlation seems to be breaking down i would expect the ongoing USD weakness to mitigate the fall to some degree.

ES-daily-heck

 

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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USDJPY fulfillment

Back on February 9th i posted http://signalinea.com/usd-still-doomed/ showing that USDJPY had probably peaked and that it meant a good and probable case for USD weakness in general for the very long term.

Since then a correction of around -10% has come off USDJPY..

But honestly a technical bounce here wouldnt surprise.

usdjpy

 

 

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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Anatomy of a Trade – Closed

A few weeks ago i posted http://signalinea.com/anatomy-of-the-trade/ responding to requests i occasionally receive asking if i could walk through one of my trades from beginning to end.

Today i took profit on that position with a +28% gain.

But given the long term nature of my bias on EURUSD it was probably too early.  Zooming way out here, take a look at this this EURUSD weekly.

USD doomed in my humble opinion..as Ive been saying for a a few months now. Capital flows to non-USD assets beginning..

EURUSD-Weekly

 

 

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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Whole world bullish crude oil now – But..

Crude oil weekly. WTI looking at what was solid support.. If this turns into resistance (which i believe it will) the carnage will be extreme given the one sided bullish bias right now.  This would put crude into the teens.

cl-W

 

 

 

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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Anatomy of the Trade

Ive gotten the question a few times over the past few years. For those that don’t watch my Omnitrades service at Coghlan, here is a trade as i do it.

Fundamentally i want to be anti-USD for the foreseeable future. Nice dip on a shorter time frame chart to a raised floor (meaning probable higher highs). So i am getting long EUR/USD via options dated out into April as i want to hold this for the next couple weeks decay shouldnt be an issue.

This is all i do really..

Bought EUR April 6th futures call options (6E) with strike of 1.11 @ 0.02320. But i will get emails telling me how it could be dont more cost effectlily via options on an ETF or something…. Yes..probably. This is just how i do it. You do what you like..

Here’s the chart.

eurusd

I am betting we get a lift here. Looking to close it something in next 5-10 days if it does what i want.

 

And as seen through the Omni service at CoghlanCap.

omni-cap1

 

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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USD..still doomed

Back on December 29th i posted that USDJPY was probably topping. HERE

Now, down almost 600 pips with real possibility of 100 some time in 2016. This USD story is all that matters to me for positioning in the year to come.

^5A79800001230D37929F8FAFB6B8A71F6688B1B7DB0B043D49^pimgpsh_fullsize_distr

 

 

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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Tankage – Right on cue

On December 18th i showed how i saw the market playing from what i saw as the final topping process of the 2009-2015 bull market. Well..here’s what happened.

es-m-m

A small relief rally could be expected here but doubtful to me it has legs as the strong USD that’s caused the majority of the EM/Commodity soul crushing of the past year will not work itself off quickly enough.

To me now, it’s all about the Dollar. Will get into that later.. Technically it appears to be topping..which would entail the Fed is not ready to commit to total Armageddon by continuing with higher rates, no matter what they say.

Being short USDJPY (stronger Yen) and long EURUSD (stronger EUR) probably won’t be the worst places to be for 2016 if i had to guess.

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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Sayonara Yen

The USD strength that has facilitated the commodity market blood bath and eventual US earnings pain in my opinion is coming to an end. Here’s the yen on an ultra long term time frame. Each bar representing a month in time.

yenM

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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Bear market and probable path

This is how i see the new bear market playing out.

Downside being in the 1300-1400 range for S&P over the next few years..and in terms of USD that may be valued at a much lower rate than today’s USD.

ES-monthly-sl

 

The best charting teacher I know:
The Morning Analysis Service by Paul Coghlan
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